What factors are shaping logistics in 2026? Which management approach is more effective: manual control or system-based management? What does demurrage look like in the “new normal”? Which tools help reduce losses by thousands of US dollars? Dmitry Kazanin, Director and Owner of TEUS logistics company, shares insights into the challenges, practical cases, and solutions.
For Ukrainian logistics, the “new normal” has long ceased to mean a return to stability. It is daily work in an environment of constant uncertainty, where risks are no longer exceptions but are embedded into planning just as much as schedules, resources, and budgets.
According to Dmitry Kazanin, Director and Owner of TEUS logistics company, the key in wartime conditions is not to wait for “ideal circumstances” but to maintain control over the supply chain: having multiple routing scenarios, contingency capacities for transshipment and storage, flexibility in transport modes, and speed in documentation and communications. That is why TEUS focuses on integrated turnkey multimodal solutions, so that the client receives not just transportation, but predictability and control within a system where risk has become an everyday variable.
Five Factors Affecting Logistics in 2026
System-Based or Manual 24/7 Management?
In 2026, effective logistics is about balancing systems and experience. A system delivers predictability: schedules, checkpoints, accountability, and data. Manual management means making decisions in non-standard situations, when reality changes faster than the instructions.
At TEUS, we leave room for experience-based management decisions, but always within pre-defined scenarios.
It is critical not to fall into either extreme:
without a system, logistics depends entirely on “heroes”;
without experience, it becomes slow and inflexible.
Tools That Keep Operations Under Control
Practice shows that what works is not complexity, but discipline.
First, continuous monitoring of critical nodes: ports, border crossings, fleet availability, wagon turnaround, and the energy situation.
Second, real A / B / C plans. These must not remain presentations but be embedded in both contractual and operational logic.
Third, checkpoints. We define in advance the moment when the plan must be reviewed and who is responsible for doing so.
Fourth, direct communication with the client. Early warning about risks is always cheaper than a “perfect explanation” after the fact.
Demurrage in the “New Normal” Is a Matter of Flexibility
In 2026, demurrage is increasingly caused not by slow loading operations, but by the inability to berth a vessel. The reasons are typical: air raid alerts, weather conditions, safety restrictions, or temporary unavailability of port infrastructure.
At that point, the vessel is forced to wait for port entry, and each day of waiting creates direct financial losses. The key mistake is rigid attachment to a single location.
In the “new normal,” demurrage is no longer just a port issue; it becomes a matter of logistics chain flexibility. An effective model means having several alternative discharge points: Black Sea ports, the Danube cluster, and EU-country ports, with pre-agreed vessel diversion scenarios.
In TEUS practice, there was a case where a vessel facing demurrage of USD 10,000 per day could not enter the scheduled port due to air raid alerts and weather restrictions. The solution was not to wait for an “open window,” but to urgently identify an alternative port of call, adjust the schedule, and redistribute the cargo.
As a result, idle time was reduced from three days to one, and losses were cut by more than USD 20,000. Today, a crisis is not an exceptional event but the operating mode.
The winner is not the one who “waited it out,” but the one who changed the scenario in time.
The Typical Decision Logic of the Day
- problem identification (port / fleet / security),
- rapid assessment of financial impact,
- management decision,
- communication with the client,
- plan adjustment.
2026 Scenarios to Factor In: Options and Switching Triggers
At TEUS, we actively maintain three to four working scenarios that differ by key variables:
- routes (Black Sea / Danube / EU overland corridors),
- freight rates,
- security level,
- resource availability.
Scenario Switching Triggers
- growing idle time,
- port operation restrictions,
- power disruptions,
- a sharp change in the security environment.
Baseline Scenarios for Clients in 2026
Operational baseline: Black Sea and Danube ports with periodic disruptions.
Alternative: overland routes and EU-country ports.
Fallback: temporary loss of key ports or fleet capacity.
A client who knows these scenarios in advance does not lose control over either the supply chain or the budget. That is why the “new normal” in 2026 is not about survival, but about control. The winners are not those who guessed the future, but those who are prepared for several possible futures at once.